Can the future be predicted? Most certainly. Can anyone or anything predict the future with certainty? Probably not. But what we can do is select the possible outcomes that are most probable and then be willing and able to change when new information presents itself.
So yes, we can often predict the future but it's the timing that is significant. Sounds simple, and it is, but the typical human condition is to be too firmly set in our prejudices, beliefs, and behavior. And we most begrudgingly change our mind.
“The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology.” - Biologist E.O. Wilson, Harvard 2009.
Climate change is one of those things about which we need to predict the future with some certainty. Is climate changing? Well even "climate deniers" are quick to tell us that the climate has always changed. So the overwhelming consensus predicts that climate will be different in the future. Good bet!
But is the earth warming? It would seem so as the last decade was the hottest recorded in human history. The trendline has been up and up for decades with some short downturns along the way. That's pretty normal for any statistical measurement.
What we don't know with high certainty is how fast the world will warm, how much it will warm, or how the warming will affect our physical environment or social fabric in either the short term or the long term. Most governments have some plan for these outcomes.
What Can We Expect Sooner
Most would predict rising seas, bigger wildfires or people fleeing climate disaster. They could include bigger floods, more intense hurricanes, longer droughts. And they would be right. All that and more we can expect on a local level. But what can we expect of a global level -- something that affects nearly all at once.
The following interview with Dr. Nate Hagens is very enlightening. Who is Dr. Hagens?
He has spent the last decades searching for the big picture questions and answers. Around the year 2000 he dropped out of managing very big money on Wall Street. He became a popular speaker on the study of resources and Peak Oil. Hagens started teaching at University. Now Hagens discovers a new life-like entity composed of humans, the “superorganism“. He can see a different path for humanity – but after a crash of our financial system. - Radio Ecoshock
While not about climate change per se, Nate Hagens offers an economic forecast of the most likely short-term threat of our changing climate and warming world.
Nate Hagens on Radio Ecoshock
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To learn more about Dr. Hayes visit Alex Smith and Radio Ecoshock.
We are already starting to see the results of economic disasters on personal, local, or regional levels. Real estate prices are either turning down or rising prices have slowed as more and more people anticipate sea level rise in affected areas. Rural areas subjected to regular extreme weather and its continued economic loss are losing population. And following that is hospital, school, and business closings.
Much of the economic losses could be offset by improvements to infrastructure and investment in conservation and renewable energies to combat the climate crisis. But progress is impeded by the corrupt political practices of vested interests in fossil fuels and the continued low tax rates for the rich and powerful. What we have lost to the tax cuts for the rich is money to invest that has a higher return on investment. Stated simply things like renewable energy have a high rate of return while things that go boom in the night like much of defense spending have low rates of return. Or, invest in things with a high rate of return and you will have more to invest in things with both high and low rates of return.
We must change this political log jam by showing up and helping others show up in order to vote out the corrupt and those too afraid or timid to stand up and represent us as they promised. Failing to do so, we will all be able to predict the future and we won't like it.
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